Friday, 2 May 2014

Ukraine in Crisis, Part III: Cold War II

Part I | Part II | Part III

I think there is an underlying reason why all this is happening. Russia wants its place back as a superpower equal to the US and Vladimir Putin believes he is the person to do it. In 2011 the former Soviet states Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia agreed to become part of the Eurasian Economic Union starting in 2015. Since then Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have expressed interest in joining. Does Vladimir believe that there is something missing from this recipe – Ukraine maybe?

If all these countries fused together would create one powerful organisation this time without the technological deficit of the former USSR. There is also a huge amount of mineral resources throughout the Eurasian steppe. This union would also share a long border with China. Chances are slim that China would join, but what if they became allies? This could create a power block strong enough to go toe to toe with the US and the West. A world war can’t happen if there aren’t two evenly matched sides technologically, militarily and economically.

Now I am old enough to remember the Cold War. These days we worry about terrorism - what a joke. In the early 80s we were worried about global thermonuclear war - end of the world stuff. If relations break down between these two blocks a second Cold War could start. We may be fearing global annihilation again. A large economic collapse such as China going bankrupt, as some people fear, could indirectly start a conflict.

We can be hopeful that things will not degenerate into a Cold War. With instant global communication and the Internet we are slowly becoming a truly global society. It may longer be possible to split the world down the middle as was the case 50 years ago. No matter where we live we all need to make sure our leaders know that we do not want this to happen.

Part I | Part II | Part III

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